In this analysis of politics, power and international relations, few theories are as mysterious and puzzling as coup d’ etat. A coup d’état, also called a putsch, a golpe de estado, or simply as a coup, means the overthrowing of an existing government by a dictator, military or political group. In many nations across the world coups are either a regular or a frequent source of regime. Coups have yielded both sorts of results – successful as well as unsuccessful. And this large and diverse list of coups contributes to the matter for the scholars to study. Yet a lot of questions regarding this phenomenon have been left unanswered. It is the most important for the political leaders to understand this as they are most likely to encounter this sudden change.

ETYMOLOGY

The phrase coup d’état comes from French, literally meaning a “stroke of state” or “blow against the state”. It finds it origin in the Medieval Latin word Colpus which means blow.

DEFINITION

A coup d’etat is an extralegal transfer of power that affirms traditional social and political power structures and occurs without major contributions from violence or popular will. HISTORY Coup d’etats have long been a part of the political traditions. Julius Caesar who is best known as the most famous of Roman generals made a coup and was the victim of another coup. Many Roman emperors, such as Claudius the fourth Roman Emperor, came to power in coups.

NATURE AND CAUSES OF COUPS D’ETAT

What is a coup?

Not a word effectively a part of the daily language, it gained popularity after many nation states experienced this phenomenon and became a significant part of the vocabulary related to international politics. Coups are identified as any action that is sudden, quick, dramatic and often highly successful. When coups turn out to be successful, a new or partially new government supplants the prior power structure. However there is a difference between coups and regime change. The differences can be analyzed by the aforementioned points

1] Coups are not always associated with violence: Unlike other forms of regime change, coups do not necessarily rely on violence or threat of violence. In a revolution, a government is overthrown by direct use of power and threat of violence. A coup is different wherein government loses its power as a faction or a group of people acquire power without significant coercion. The term bloodless coup is also gaining popularity. In fact it is believed that coups are most successful when least amount of force or threat of physical violence is unleashed.

2] Coups are characterized by extralegal transfer of power: A coup d’etat is an abnormal and extralegal, if not illegal transfer of power. If any transfer of power happens constitutionally or within the ambit of legislative powers, it cannot be considred a coup.

3] Non-importance of will of the people: The popular will turns out to be insignificant when it comes to coup d’etat. All the other forms of regime changes require popular will in some manner or the other. In the democratically held elections, the citizens of the nation vote to elect their representative. Even civil wars for that matter require the support of the people to back their government which ideologically meets their requirements. And in the case of revolutions, the support of the people is most significantly required as it is the people who lead to the popular uprising and without their support, the revolution will fail. This requirement of popular will is not at all necessary for coups. Coup is more of an elite phenomenon than a product of popular will.

TYPES OF COUPS

There are three main types of coups: Presidential coup, palace coup and Putsch. A presidential coup can defined as the temporary suspension of constitutional guarantees and closure of the executive, which rules by decree, and uses referenda and new legislative elections to ratify a regime with broader executive powers.” This occurs when a democratically elected president converts the regime into a dictatorship with the objective to expand and increase executive power. There have been two well known presidential coups in the 1990s: Peru and Guatemala. In the case of Peru, Alberto Fujimori came to power in 1990 but failed to secure control over congress. Overtime relations between executive and congress deteriorated. In April 1992, two years after coming to power, President Fujimori closes congress, suspends the constitution, fires judges and declares an emergency rule. The Peruvian military offers Fujimori institutional support and the public rallies behind him. Congressional elections are later held in November 1992 and Fujimori is re-elected in 1995. There are numerous other recent cases of Presidential coups: Russia in 1993 when Boris Yeltsin expanded executive powers. Kazakhstan in 1994 when Nursultan Nazarbaev dissolved parliament and wrote a new constitution with expanded executive powers. Belarus in 1996 when Alexander Lukashenko changed the constitution. Philippines in 1973 when Ferdinand Marcos converted his elected government into a dictatorship. Palace coups take place within political structures of existing regimes. It involves the plotting of rivals of the president within the ruling group. The objective of palace coups is the replacement of the president through constitutional action. Assassinations are also a key feature of palace coups and for success military support is often needed. Palace coups are characterized by deep conspiracy and secrecy, are usually bloodless with very little destruction and are quick and effective. An example of a palace coup is the assassination of President Laurent Kabila of the Democratic Republic of Congo in 2001. Another palace coup in Nigeria occurred in 1994 when General Sani Abacha staged a coup to block the transition from military to civilian rule/democracy. A putsch is a violent military uprising by a group within the military, but not within the ruling group. It is a conspiracy for the seizure of key military targets and the subsequent seizure of state power. Examples of putsches are the Chilean coup in 1973, the Central African Republic coup in 2003 and the Cote d’Ivoire coup in 1999.

ACUTE CAUSES OF COUPS

1] Grievance within the military

2] Rising Military popularity in the eyes of the public

3] Political Crisis- constitutional, economic or electoral

4] Military threats from abroad

5] Military defeat or Participation in war

6] Direct foreign intervention

Chronic Causes of Coups

1] Character of the economy of the state: If a state’s export economy is particularly monolithic, there is more possibility of a coup.

2] Centralization of wealth: If the wealth is highly centralized, coup risk is hypothetically more because the coalition of wealthy elites necessary to cause a coup is considerably smaller.

3] Effects of colonialism: Many former colonized nations have well developed military forces. This was how General Pervez Musharraf was able to gain power in Pakistan in 1999.

4] Legitimacy of the regime in power: If the regime in power is seen as legitimate, a coup will be less likely.

5] Strength of civil society: If a strong civil society exists, there is less likelihood of a coup to happen.

6] A previous coup: Many scholars believe that a coup leads to another coup. A previous coup weakens the legitimacy of social as well as political institutions. As a heart attack weakens the muscle of the heart, similarly a coup weakens the power of the institution. A military that has staged a coup before is much more likely to try to attempt another seizure of power. Some states enter a vicious cycle. Where coups have happened before, and have apparently “worked,” both the military and segments of the civilian population may believe that coups are a possible or even a decent way to do political business, usually on the basis of claims that such power seizures are a necessary evil justified by the need to avert crisis and rescue the nation from adversity. As a result, coups develop a life and a momentum of their own.

7] Economic Development: As soon as countries become more developed, and people have higher living standards, then political institutions will solidify, and military coups will become obsolete. There is evidence to support this argument from Latin America, where economies have indeed grown and military coups have declined. Of the twenty-nine coups since 2010, twenty-two of them took place in the bottom tier of the 188 countries ranked in the United Nations Development Program’s Human Development Index.

ARE COUPS GOING OUT OF STYLE?

After a political or military coup has been staged, several effects can be seen. Before we draw any analysis, we need to understand the success ratio of coups. Coup d’etat regularly fail. Looking at the success rate of the coups, it can be inferred that only half the coups staged turn out to be successful. From 2010, The world has only 18 attempted coups out of which only four successfully installed leaders only for a short duration of one month. Why are successful coups so unlikely these days? This is because the governments have become more democratic. Military forces are also less likely to intervene either to oust a bad leader. Leaders are more likely to be forced to resign by protesters in the streets rather than by a military coup. Coups are traditionally associated with autocratic governments and the world is now moving towards less autocratic and more democratic governments. Thailand is the country that has seen the most successful coups since 1946 [10], followed by Bolivia [8], Syria [8] and Argentina [7]. The number of military coups and coup attempts since 1950 stand at around 530. During the earlier times coups changed hands as frequently as through elections and much more frequently as through civil wars and protests. Coups have significantly fallen but not completely faded.